IMF: No Recession in 2025 Despite Tariffs – But Risks Loom Large!

 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the global economy is “likely to avoid a recession” in 2025 despite U.S. President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, but warned of “significant risks” to growth, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing on April 15, 2025, ahead of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, per Reuters.

 The IMF revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%, down from 3.1% in October 2024, citing a 1% contraction in global trade due to U.S. tariffs averaging 22.5%, the highest since 1909, per Yale Budget Lab.

Georgieva noted resilience in emerging markets, with India’s 6.5% growth and Africa’s 4% expansion offsetting U.S. and EU slowdowns, per IMF data. However, tariffs costing $5.8 trillion in global stock value since April 2, per LSEG, and a 45% U.S. recession risk, per Goldman Sachs, cloud the outlook. 

The IMF urged dialogue, as China’s 125% counter-tariffs and EU’s 25% levies on U.S. goods threaten supply chains, per The Guardian. Central banks, including the ECB, plan rate cuts to counter inflation spikes, projected at 5% globally, per Bloomberg.

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