UN Warns Global Temperatures Could Hit New Record Highs Before 2031

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with a strong possibility that a new hottest year on record could occur before 2031.

According to reports gathered by RMNews360, the United Nations weather and climate agency said the 11 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 2015, highlighting the accelerating pace of global warming.

In its latest Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update released on Thursday, the WMO stated that there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

The agency also warned that there is a 75 per cent chance the average global temperature for the 2026-2030 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold set under the Paris Climate Agreement.

“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the agency said.

El Nino Could Push Temperatures Higher

The WMO linked part of the growing heat risk to the possible return of the El Nino climate pattern later in 2026.

Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s climate update, said a predicted El Nino event at the end of 2026 could significantly increase the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year.

The last El Nino event contributed to making 2023 the second hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 became the hottest year on record at around 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages.

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that causes warming in parts of the Pacific Ocean and influences global weather systems, rainfall patterns and temperatures.

The WMO further stated that annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.

However, the agency noted that it remains extremely unlikely that any single year within the next five years will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Arctic Temperatures Expected to Rise Sharply

The report also raised concerns about rapidly warming Arctic conditions.

According to the forecast, Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters are expected to average about 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 baseline, more than three times the projected global temperature anomaly for the same period.

The WMO said predicted rainfall patterns between 2026 and 2030 also point to wetter conditions in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected across parts of the Amazon.

The report was compiled by the Met Office and the WMO’s lead climate prediction centre using forecasts from 13 international institutes.

The findings come as parts of western Europe continue to experience unusually high temperatures, with Britain and France recently recording some of their hottest May temperatures on record.