Iran threatens prolonged oil blockade if attacks continue

Iran has warned that it could block oil shipments from the Middle East if military strikes by the United States and Israel continue, escalating tensions around global energy supplies and raising fears of wider disruption in the oil market.

According to reports, the warning came from Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which said it would not allow oil exports from the region to proceed if the attacks persist. The development places renewed focus on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

The threat prompted a strong reaction from Donald Trump, president of the United States, who warned that any attempt by Iran to block oil flows through the strait would trigger a much stronger military response.

Despite the heated rhetoric from both sides, global markets reacted differently, with crude oil prices dropping and stock markets rallying on speculation that the conflict might end sooner than expected.

Oil transit route at the centre of tensions

The Strait of Hormuz is widely regarded as the world’s most important oil shipping corridor, linking major Gulf oil producers to global markets through the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a major concern for energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has already affected shipping activity in the region, with reports indicating that tankers have avoided the route for more than a week. The disruption has forced some producers to halt pumping operations as storage facilities begin to reach capacity.

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Iran’s warning signals the possibility of a prolonged standoff that could further affect energy flows from the Middle East and intensify geopolitical tensions in the region.

Escalating rhetoric from global leaders

Trump said earlier that U.S. forces had inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military infrastructure during recent strikes. He also suggested that the conflict might end sooner than the four-week timeframe he initially projected, although details of what would constitute victory remain unclear.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, said the country’s military campaign is aimed at dismantling Iran’s clerical ruling system. Israeli authorities have indicated that their broader objective is to weaken the current power structure in Tehran.

The conflict has drawn global attention due to its potential economic consequences, particularly for energy markets already dealing with price volatility.

Oil prices swing amid uncertainty

Energy markets have reacted sharply to developments surrounding the conflict. Brent crude futures initially surged by nearly 30 percent, reaching their highest levels since 2022 before retreating sharply.

By Tuesday, prices had fallen by more than 10 percent as investors weighed the possibility of a shorter conflict and assessed the impact of the disruptions on oil supply.

Analysts say uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk factor for the global energy market.

The political implications are also significant in the United States, where fuel prices remain a sensitive issue for voters ahead of upcoming elections.

Recent polling suggests many Americans expect gasoline prices to rise in the coming months, highlighting the potential domestic impact of the conflict as tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel continue to unfold.