Lagos, Enugu, Kebbi, 10 Other States to expect longer rainy days, NiMet predicts

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba states in 2026, raising implications for agriculture, flooding risks, and water management.

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, disclosed the projections on Tuesday in Abuja during the public presentation of NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), which outlines rainfall patterns, dry spells, and temperature trends across the country.

NiMet said rainfall onset is expected earlier than usual in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba states, while Borno State is likely to experience a late onset.

Longer rainy season, shifting rainfall patterns

According to the agency, rainfall cessation will occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger states, but will be delayed in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna states, a combination that explains the longer rainy season expected in several regions.

NiMet said parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger states would experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season, while most parts of the country are expected to record annual rainfall amounts close to long-term averages.

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Above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom states and the Federal Capital Territory, while below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states.

The agency also warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun states between March and May, with moderate dry spells expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, and Delta states.

August break to last up to 40 days in Lagos, Ogun

NiMet further predicted that during the June–July–August period, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days could occur in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.

The agency said the Little Dry Season, popularly known as the August break, is expected to begin by late July and will be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo states, with 28 to 40 days of little or no rainfall. Moderate August break conditions are anticipated in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo states.

NiMet also projected that both daytime and nighttime temperatures will remain above long-term averages across most parts of Nigeria between January and May.

It cautioned that early heavy rains in some southern states should not be mistaken for the official start of the rainy season, urging farmers and other rainfall-dependent sectors to rely on NiMet’s predicted onset dates and advisory services for planning.