Impact of Audacious PBAT Executive Orders and Policies

Impact of Audacious PBAT Executive Orders and Policies by Dr Kenny Odugbemi

Current harsh economic conditions orchestrated intense hunger and anger among Nigerian populace

Economic vitals

Non oil sectorial contribution to our GDP

Agriculture -23.69%
Industries-30.78%
Services-44.04%
ICT-15.77%

Myriads of audacious policies though regarded as necessary, but there is not enough impact analysis on the entire ecosystem, we have extremely poor planning in implementation, this gross incompetence has crippled the entire operation of many Small and Medium organizations

Multinationals and Indigenous corporation now heavily involve in processing of letters of credit to meet their capital expenditures because of insufficiency of Forex, leading to protracted foreign paucity in the market.

Large corporation utilized tradeline to fund their establishments through confirmed irrevocable letters of credit for Capex investments.

Large corporations sometimes have to offset Naira’s denominated cover that was provided by their banks, after remeasurement to excluding Naira denominated cash cover.

There is limited supply of foreign currency within our local monetary system thus imparing timely settlement of foreign current payment to many international suppliers

Presidential Tax review audit team have done fantastic professional review and subjected major changes in line with the executive order, however there is need to legislative reviews by Upper house and lower house because it can be ratified as Law, as only Executive fiats allow tax waiver mechanisms.

Inflation might likely drop in 2024-21.4% and further into 2025-17% – all things being equal through major structural and policies reform that will reflect our current realities.

Inspite of Naira decline through Market research indicated that National currency wad 41% ,there will an increase in inflation early month of 2024, as a result of market reform and current volatility in the parallel market.

PBAT core objectives to bring inflation down to 21.4% contrary inflation will continue to rise

Participation in Nigerian investment is quite low at 11%, projected to teach (20-25)% in 2024

Our major challenges

We have a structural imbalance

Overly bloated government size and exceeding dominance of fiscal intervention

External imbalance grows because exceeding leakages in the system

There is an on going proposal for bank recapitilization to the tune of N1trn thus encouraging mergers among Banks and other financial business Lined as listed on Nigeria exchange group NGX to reduce the number of banks

Conclusion

PBAT needs to save Nigeria from economic woes by addressing all structural issues with pragmatic policies, not the ongoing experimental test analysis rather than tested and tried practical solutions that can accommodate our common realities.